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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-23T15:05Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26158/-1
CME Note: Halo CME with shock front preceding the brighter bulk. Its source is likely an eruption in AR3376 (N23W34) starting after 2023-07-23T14:00Z, likely associated with the C5.2 class flare from AR 3376 (N23W34) peaking at 2023-07-23T14:57Z. There also was a C7.4 class flare from AR 3372 on the NW limb at the time that has to be considered. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 6 nT to 17 nT, rapid velocity increase from ~390 km/s to 550 km/s, and accompanying density increase. Flux rope may have started closer to 2023-07-26T03:44Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-25T21:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-27T00:01Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-23T19:33Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 735
Longitude (deg): 030W
Latitude (deg): 25N
Half-angular width (deg): 33 

Notes: CME seen heading N and W during UTC evening of 23 July. Partly obscured by occulting mirror mount on C3. Glancing blow in deterministic run, interacts with - and is slowed by - the CIR in advance of (presumably) CH28. Main CME crosses 1AU 26/1200UTC, but Earth only sees side lobe.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 45.60 hour(s)
Difference: -26.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-24T00:18Z

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